The Implications of Welfare Generosity and Welfare Access for Migration Strategies

Economic logic suggests that countries offering more generous welfare benefits are likely to be perceived as more attractive destinations by migrants. Whilst the literature concerning the welfare magnet hypothesis predominantly focuses on the level of welfare generosity, what is arguably more important for immigrants, besides the amount of welfare spending, is their effective access to social welfare. The role of accessibility of welfare provision to immigrants in shaping migration decisions remains understudied in the existing literature. This paper aims to explore the link between welfare generosity, immigrant access to social welfare and migration using the newly updated Immigrant Exclusion from Social Programmes Index (IESPI) to gauge immigrants' social welfare access relative to natives, and its effect on migration flows. After constructing a database of bilateral migration inflows (outflows) for 19 (15) advanced economies over the period 1990–2020, we employ panel regression analysis to shed light on the extent to which access to welfare might influence migration journeys of immigrants towards most advanced economies, including possible differences across gender. We find that, even when controlling for welfare generosity and other migration determinants, access to social welfare increases migration inflows, whilst it does not discourage return migration. Moreover, although there is no major difference in the role of welfare access for male and female migrants, African migration is less shaped by access to social welfare. This is in line with the literature that points out significant barriers faced by immigrants in accessing social welfare, and the latter’s strong conditionality on immigrant status, amongst other characteristics. Furthermore, whilst the overall social expenditure is not associated with higher migrant inflows, rise in welfare generosity increases return migration from Western economies to Africa. This implies that welfare generosity empowers migrants to be more mobile, rather than locking them in. The current paper sets a basis for further research regarding the role of specific social welfare policies and diverse geographical and policy settings in forming global migration journeys.