Global Migration Futures: The concept and theory of migration scenarios

The short-term character of European public debates on migration has long been recognised and seen as problematic (Skeldon, 1990; Dustmann, 2007). The anxiety-ridden environment which has led to the gradual ‘securitisation’ of migration-related issues (Huysmans, 2000) has impaired the ability of policy makers and academics alike to develop long-term and critical insights into drivers of international migration. To be sure, relatively narrow responses to any given issue at the top of national and international policy agendas are by no means unique to migration. Yet this paper focuses on migration as an increasingly salient topic in today’s society. In particular it lays the basis for a theoretical framework of migration scenarios. The analysis herein stems from the Global Migration Futures project implemented by the International Migration Institute (IMI) at the University of Oxford.