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North Africa and Europe

> Policy briefing: Exploring the Future of Migration in North Africa

> Policy briefing: Exploring the Future of Migration in Europe

First Component

The GMF team reviewed social scientific literature in the fields of economics, political economy, demography, geography, development studies, anthropology and sociology. We then developed a conceptual framework and a model of the social, cultural, economic and demographic factors that drive international migration in both sending and receiving countries. We derived hypotheses from this framework using qualitative analysis of existing data and research on drivers of migration.

Second Component

We carried out individual interviews with scholars and non-academic stakeholders from governments, international organisations, businesses and civil society organisations, who have insight into and hold expertise on issues directly and indirectly related to migration. The research team will maintain a continuous dialogue with stakeholders until the project's completion. This allows us to develop scenarios that i) are credible, ii) shed light on the critical uncertainties of the future,and iii) are relevant to those working on migration issues.

We used semi-structured interviews with over 30 stakeholders between October 2009 and January 2010. Questions covered the areas of greatest uncertainty with respect to international migration, desirable and undesirable future migration scenarios, and important lessons for the future. We asked stakeholders about the major constraints that limit the ways in which migration can be beneficial to a society and about how to minimise any negative migration outcomes.

The team compiled, analysed and clustered the interview data along key themes. We prepared a paper summarising the responses, and distributed it to the interviewees as well as participants at GMF’s first scenario-building workshop.

Third Component

We organised three workshops with scholars and non-academic migration stakeholders. At the first two workshops we developed scenarios on future international migration in North Africa and Europe, and at the third workshop we examined key issues for future international migration that deserve further targeted research. Our aim has been to prompt stakeholders to be active contributors in the production of knowledge, as well as ‘users’ of scenarios in their future work.

The structure of the workshops has encouraged stakeholders to use information from their daily work. For policy makers, this approach is helpful in responding to major future shifts in global migration patterns as well as the factors driving these processes. For academics, this experience may increase awareness of future lines of investigation that have so far remained overlooked. For individuals working in the private sector, this knowledge might enhance their capacity to serve migrant needs in the future.

Fourth Component

We created and disseminated an online survey to gather feedback on the North African and European migration scenarios under development. This allowed us to reach out to a large number of individuals from different professional backgrounds and geographic locations with expertise in migration policy and research. The findings of the survey were summarised in a policy brief and discussed during the second workshop in Cairo.

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